Sarika Mahajan1 and Balwinder Singh2

1SET Business School, Jammu– 181133, India,
2Department of Commerce and Business Management, Guru Nanak Dev University,
Amritsar – 143005, Punjab, India

1E-mail: sarika_mhjn@yahoo.co.in, 2E-mail: bksaini@gmail.com

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between returns and trading volume by using data on the Sensitive index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 1996 to 2006. Correlation analyses, GARCH (1,1) model and Granger causality tests are used to investigate contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume and return. A positive and insignificant contemporaneous correlation between return and trading volume was found. However, positive and significant impact of volume on return is detected in GARCH (1,1) model. In addition, GARCH (1,1) documents that the persistence of variance over time partly declines if one includes trading volume as a proxy for information arrivals in the equation of conditional volatility. It also shows the negative impact of volume on conditional volatility because of asymmetry that is observed in significant Jarque-Bera. Furthermore, no causality exists between volume and returns indicating that volume doesnot contain predictive power for the direction of price changes.

Keywords:  Returns, Trading Volume, GARCH (1,1) and Granger Causality Test.